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US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island on eve of midterms, calling them defensive, as Tehran says a deal is far off

Ongoing · day 6 ↗

US forces launched limited strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz late Monday, which US officials described as defensive and aimed at surface-to-air missiles, while Iranian state television reported explosions. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Iran and the United States are far from reaching a deal to end the war, despite heightened diplomatic efforts. Trump wrote on Truth Social that a deal with Tehran "could happen" and signaled progress in talks, a day before the midterm elections.

Why it matters

The strikes were reportedly part of a series of limited attacks in recent weeks, so Washington can keep military pressure on Iran while Trump publicly plays down a return to full-scale war, leaving Tehran to judge which message to believe.

How reporting varies

Financial Times: Reports Washington described the attacks as a defensive measure against Tehran's potential use of surface-to-air missiles, and that oil prices held steady.

Globe and Mail: Iranian sources say they think a new US attack is still more likely than a deal.

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Iran says it would reopen Strait of Hormuz within two days under US deal, cutting timeline from seven

Ongoing · day 6 ↗

Iranian officials said Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days as part of a U.S. deal, even as they prepared for all-out war. Iranian officials spoke of some progress in negotiating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on Monday to meet Iran's foreign minister.

Why it matters

A shorter timeline is moot if safe passage cannot be enforced: the Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda was struck near the strait on Oct. 30 despite clearance Pakistan had arranged, and no one has claimed the attack.

How reporting varies

The Diplomat: Argues the Al Mayeda strike shows Pakistan can broker Hormuz access but cannot enforce compliance, and suggests sharing the burden of guaranteeing any deal.

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  • The Diplomat — Backs: Hormuz reopening timeline cut from seven days to two; Araghchi statement after third day of Doha talks Sunday; Conditions: sanctions relief, smaller US presence, Iran-Oman shipping routes; Al Mayeda struck near strait Oct. 30 despite Pakistan-arranged clearance; No one has claimed the attack

Kremlin confirms Russia, Ukraine and US will hold trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11

The Kremlin said Tuesday that Russia will join three-way talks with Ukraine and the United States in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11, with Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky as chief negotiator. US envoy Steve Witkoff announced the round on Monday, saying it will cover post-war security agreements, de-escalation, humanitarian measures and ending the war. Jared Kushner and Witkoff are expected to lead for the US; the last US-mediated talks were in February.

Why it matters

Washington is pressing for a breakthrough before winter, yet the sides remain far apart on terms, so the Abu Dhabi round may test whether the pressure Trump has recently put on Ukraine can produce a deal.

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US midterm voting begins, with polls favoring Democrats and control of Congress at stake

Polls opened Tuesday in the US midterm elections, with all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governors' races on the ballot. Polls and nonpartisan analysts favor Democrats, though gerrymandering and tight margins in key states mean a wave is far from certain. First polls close at 23:00 GMT, and final results could take days; more than 58 million ballots were cast early, a record, according to France 24.

Why it matters

A Democratic win in either chamber would give the opposition control over investigations and spending for the last two years of Trump's term, while the vote also tests how far the president presses if his party loses.

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Should Know

Arab party leader urges Israeli opposition to accept his bloc's votes to unseat Netanyahu

Ongoing · day 9 ↗

Two regional officials and a third person told reporters that Netanyahu is pressing Trump for another wave of strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections. The leader of the largest Arab-majority party in the incoming Knesset told AFP that reluctant opposition members must accept 'political reality' and join forces to oust Netanyahu, and criticised holdouts who oppose a coalition that includes Arab parties. Israel's president is expected this week to name the person tasked with forming the next government.

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  • Straits Times — Backs: Jabareen told AFP opposition cannot replace government without Arab parties; Joint List 11 and Raam 8 seats in Oct. 27 vote; Netanyahu bloc 53 seats vs opposition 48; Eisenkot has misgivings but has not ruled it out; Herzog to meet parties before choosing who tries to form government

Russian bombs kill 29 at Ukraine aid centre in Zaporizhzhia region, regional head says

At least nine 3,000kg aerial bombs hit the village of Komyshuvakha on Monday, striking a school used to hand out aid and then a shelter nearby, officials said. Regional head Mykhailo Semikin put the toll at 29 on Tuesday, with 48 missing and rescue work ongoing. Earlier counts were 24 and 26. Zelensky said the attack showed Russia "does not want any de-escalation"; the Russian military has not publicly commented. It came a day after a six-day local truce around Oleshky expired.

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Ship attacks near Romania and Bulgaria test NATO's Black Sea resolve despite new patrols

NATO said it would deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones after seven strikes on cargo ships near Romania and Bulgaria in October, but attacks have continued. Another ship was hit on Oct. 23, and a Greek container ship was sunk by naval drones in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone last week. Analysts quoted by Reuters have little doubt Russia is responsible; Russia denies targeting Ukraine's neighbours, and Romania has called the strikes "systematic" without attributing individual attacks.

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  • Reuters · wire — Backs: Seven strikes in October prompted NATO patrol aircraft, radars, drones; Another ship hit Oct. 23; Greek container ship sunk by naval drones in Bulgaria's EEZ; Analysts have little doubt Russia responsible; Russia denies; Romania called strikes systematic without attributing individual attacks
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Kim Yo Jong rejects FBI's Binance hack claim as 'absurd rhetoric', says Pyongyang has 'issues to reconsider'

Ongoing · day 4 ↗

North Korea on Tuesday rejected the US allegations that it was behind the $6 billion Binance hack, calling them "absurd rhetoric." Binance says outflows have normalised after the hack. Binance's co-CEO says the company is in very strong financial health following the $6.3 billion heist.

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Reddit challenges Australia's under-16 social media ban in High Court

Australia's High Court began hearing a bid to overturn the law that restricts children under 16 from popular platforms. Reddit and the advocacy group Digital Freedom Project argue the ban is unconstitutional and robs children of their right to free communication. Reuters reports Reddit called the ban "inept".

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Brussels sets Friday deadline for eurozone nominees to replace Lagarde at ECB

Eurozone leaders must submit nominees to succeed Christine Lagarde as ECB president by Friday, according to the Financial Times. The contest for the top central banking job is heating up.

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US to drop South Africa and Rwanda from Agoa duty-free trade program

The Trump administration said South Africa and Rwanda are breaking the rules of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) and will lose its duty-free benefits. South Africa's removal takes effect from next year; the move will hit exports such as South African auto parts and wine and Rwandan coffee. It follows US Treasury sanctions on Rwanda's defence ministry about a week earlier, and the New York Times calls it the latest measure against South Africa, which the administration has accused of discriminating against white people. One South African analysis puts the cost at a 3.4% tariff increase, not loss of US market access.

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Drones are now the top killer of civilians in Sudan's war, UN says

Drones have become the leading cause of civilian deaths in Sudan this year, according to the United Nations. The weapons are hitting a population already overwhelmed by famine and drought.

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Muscovites bid farewell to Novaya Gazeta, Russia's last major Kremlin-critical outlet

Ongoing · day 2 ↗

Der Spiegel reports that Novaya Gazeta, which kept working in Russia for almost five years of war, must now close, and that Muscovites are saying goodbye.

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French Assemblée set to reject 2027 budget after deputies rewrite it

France's National Assembly is preparing to reject the first part of the 2027 budget in the coming days, Le Monde reports. Deputies reworked the government's draft heavily, scrapping some taxes and adding others, leaving a text the paper calls obsolete and incoherent.

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Financial leaders warn big AI bets pose risks to fragile global markets

Ongoing · day 4 ↗

According to Reuters, financial leaders say big-ticket tech deals need to keep pace with the AI boom, but the risks remain high. According to Reuters, global markets were already fragile before big AI bets, and those bets could break them.

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Poland's court standoff cools but stays unresolved, and Moscow looks to exploit it

Ongoing · day 3 ↗

Russia has seized on Poland's constitutional standoff to try to weaken European support for Ukraine, after its allies were ousted in elections in Hungary and Serbia. About 2,800 troops from 10 European countries will take part in a multinational military exercise in southeastern Poland from November 9 to 22, testing a force designed to support Ukraine in the event of a peace deal. A British military official said the Ukraine-support exercise in Poland prepares for deployment rather than projecting force, and Western officials stress that any force sent to Ukraine would not take part in offensive operations.

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