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US-Iran war enters fifth day as strikes widen toward Tehran and Iran hits Gulf bases

Ongoing · day 23

The U.S. launched strikes around Tehran for the first time since Trump declared the end of the ceasefire, marking a significant geographic escalation in the conflict now in its fifth straight day of fighting. Trump is actively considering expanding U.S. military operations in Iran — including the use of ground troops and bombing the nuclear-linked Pickaxe Mountain site — following briefings from top aides this week. Iran released a U.S. citizen who had been wrongfully detained since December 2024 and allowed her to leave the country; Trump called it a 'gesture of goodwill' even as the conflict continued.

Why it matters

Three US officials told Reuters the strikes are deliberately targeting Iranian military capabilities the US would want destroyed before executing more complex operations — meaning the current campaign is simultaneously a push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and preparation for a potential harder escalation, including the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear-linked site Trump has threatened. Shipping companies are already refusing US-military-guided transit convoys after Iranian attacks on guided vessels, and India has ordered shipowners not to deploy Indian seafarers on Hormuz routes — two concrete signs that the blockade is fragmenting global maritime confidence faster than US air power can restore it.

How reporting varies

Haaretz: Emphasises the gap between Trump's declared goal of opening Hormuz and Iran's continued ability to threaten shipping, and reports Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have traded fire for the first time since 2022.

NYT / NPR: Frames the conflict as a potential 'forever war', drawing comparisons to Iraq and Afghanistan and questioning whether the US has a realistic exit strategy.

Al Jazeera: Leads with Iranian civilian casualties and gives prominence to Iranian official statements framing the conflict as 'existential'; also notes the release of a detained US citizen as a goodwill gesture.

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Iran signals diplomatic opening even as it strikes Gulf bases

Ongoing · day 23

The U.S. launched strikes around Tehran for the first time since Trump declared the end of the ceasefire, marking a significant geographic escalation in the conflict now in its fifth straight day of fighting. Trump is actively considering expanding U.S. military operations in Iran — including the use of ground troops and bombing the nuclear-linked Pickaxe Mountain site — following briefings from top aides this week. Iran released a U.S. citizen who had been wrongfully detained since December 2024 and allowed her to leave the country; Trump called it a 'gesture of goodwill' even as the conflict continued.

Why it matters

The simultaneous diplomatic visit and military strikes illustrate Iran's negotiating posture: maintain enough pressure on the US to extract concessions while keeping a back-channel open through Gulf intermediaries like Qatar. The MOU's ambiguous language on who controls the Strait of Hormuz has already pushed both sides back toward active fighting, meaning any new deal faces the same interpretive fault line unless that clause is resolved explicitly.

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Starmer delivers final PMQs before handing power to Andy Burnham on Monday

Keir Starmer fielded his last Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday, declaring 'this is the end of my political journey' after two years as prime minister and six as Labour leader. He steps down Monday after losing his party's support following missteps including the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador and Labour's poor performance in May's local elections; Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester and the sole candidate to replace him, will be confirmed as Labour leader Friday and take over as prime minister Monday. No general election is required under Britain's parliamentary system; the next national vote is not due until 2029.

Why it matters

Burnham's incoming government inherits a UK economy that grew only 0.1% in May, a freshly nationalised British Steel, and a Save the Children dispute that exposed the government's sensitivity to criticism over Gaza — three immediate tests that will define whether a change of leader translates into a change in Labour's political fortunes before the 2029 election.

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More than 500 Rohingya feared dead after two boats capsize off Myanmar

The UN refugee agency and the International Organization for Migration reported Thursday that two boats carrying mostly Rohingya passengers departed Myanmar's Rakhine State in late June and are feared to have sunk, with more than 500 people aboard. One vessel carrying about 250 people lost contact shortly after departure; a second carrying roughly 280 people is believed to have sunk off Myanmar's Ayeyarwady coast on July 8. The agencies noted the journeys took place outside the regular sailing season, when monsoon conditions make voyages especially dangerous.

Why it matters

2025 was already the deadliest year on record for Rohingya sea crossings — nearly 900 killed or missing — and aid cuts by the US and other donors have since reduced rations in Bangladesh's overcrowded camps, pushing more people to attempt the crossing during the dangerous monsoon season when they would not normally travel. If the casualty figures are confirmed, this single pair of incidents would account for more than half of all Rohingya killed or missing at sea in 2025.

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Should Know

Russian missiles kill two in Kyiv; Ukraine hits Black Sea oil tankers as EU seals drone deal

Ongoing · day 22

Russian ballistic missiles struck at least two districts in Kyiv early Thursday, killing two people and triggering fires across the Ukrainian capital in what Mayor Vitali Klitschko described as the sixth such attack on Kyiv in July. Ukraine's reformist, tech-savvy Defence Minister — credited with spearheading the country's drone warfare capabilities — was ousted after pushback from military generals who resisted his modernisation efforts, with Zelensky endorsing an energy sector executive as the new appointment. Ukraine struck 20 Russian vessels in the Black Sea, causing wheat prices to jump, while Russia also struck vessels in the same maritime theatre.

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Russia and Ukraine trade Black Sea vessel strikes as wheat prices jump

Ukraine and Russia launched missile and drone attacks on vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov on Thursday, with Ukraine's Black Sea ports reported to have lost a third of their grain export capacity. Wheat prices rose following the strikes. Ukraine's military said it hit 20 Russian vessels, including 17 oil tankers, while Russia confirmed attacks on Odesa port infrastructure used for petroleum.

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China sends fourth-ranked official to Pyongyang as Beijing-Pyongyang ties deepen after Xi summit

China's fourth-highest-ranked official, Wang Huning, held talks in Pyongyang with Jo Yong Won, a senior Workers' Party official, reaffirming commitments made during President Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea last month — described by North Korean state media as the first such summit in seven years. Wang said China would implement the 'far-reaching blueprint' agreed by Xi and Kim Jong Un; Jo told Wang that North Korea seeks 'strategic communication and tactical cooperation' with Beijing. South Korea's central bank separately raised interest rates for the first time in three and a half years, citing persistent inflation and currency weakness.

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China now viewed more favourably than US in 25 of 36 countries, Pew survey finds

A Pew Research Center poll of more than 42,000 people across 36 countries — conducted between February and May — found that in 25 of those countries more respondents held favourable views of China than of the US, the first time Pew has recorded such a result in so many countries since it began tracking the question in 2002. Across 20 countries surveyed, 46% held a favourable view of China while only 36% viewed the US positively; confidence in Xi Jinping also outpaced that in Donald Trump, though overall confidence in both leaders was generally below 50%. Only six countries — Poland, the Philippines, South Korea, India, Japan and Israel — still favour the US over China.

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French parliament approves assisted dying law by 291 to 241

France's National Assembly voted 291 to 241 to legalise assisted dying for adults with serious, incurable, life-threatening illnesses in an advanced or terminal phase who experience constant, unbearable suffering and can express a free and informed choice. The lethal substance may be self-administered or, if the patient is physically unable, given by a doctor or nurse after a minimum two-day reflection period. Prime Minister Lecornu said he would refer parts of the bill to the Constitutional Council; the Senate, dominated by the conservative right, had rejected the bill three times.

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TSMC pledges another $100bn in US investment as Q2 profit jumps 77%

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company said it would invest an additional $100 billion in US production, bringing its total US commitment to $265 billion, as it reported second-quarter profit that jumped 77% to a record, far surpassing analyst expectations. TSMC also raised its revenue forecasts and spending plans. The announcement came as US lawmakers separately urged the Trump administration to ban Chinese memory chips, with Apple lobbying for clearance to buy from China's CXMT during a global memory shortage.

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US imposes 25% tariffs on most Brazilian imports, effective July 22

The US Trade Representative announced a 25% tariff on most imports from Brazil, effective July 22, following a yearlong investigation into Brazilian trade practices covering digital trade, illegal deforestation and Brazil's Pix instant-payment system. Exemptions include beef, coffee, rare earths, energy products and aircraft. Secretary of State Marco Rubio blamed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for failing to negotiate in good faith; Lula called the move a 'lamentable milestone', said there was no justification, and vowed reciprocal measures through a WTO dispute mechanism. Brazil votes in general elections in October.

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Hong Kong police arrest five booksellers in third national security raid on independent stores in 2026

Hong Kong police raided two independent bookshops in the Mong Kok district — Have A Nice Stay and Greenfield Book Store — and arrested five people on suspicion of displaying and selling seditious materials under the 2024 national security law. Authorities said the publications incited 'hatred' against the government, judiciary and law enforcement; if convicted, the suspects face up to seven years in prison. It was the third such operation against independent bookstores in 2026, following raids in March and June. Have A Nice Stay had announced it would shut down in August, citing financial difficulties and an 'elusive red line.'

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French PM visits Morocco to deepen strategic partnership as Pegasus spyware revelations emerge

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu arrived in Rabat on July 15–16 for his first official foreign visit, accompanied by about a dozen ministers, covering defence, security, economic cooperation and investment — the first major step in translating France's 2024 recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara into a practical strategic partnership. Separately, a consortium of 14 media organisations including Le Monde and the Guardian, with technical support from Amnesty International, published testimony from a whistleblower who worked for Morocco's domestic intelligence service (DGST) alleging the agency used Pegasus spyware from 2017 against domestic and foreign targets, including French politicians and Spanish cabinet ministers and police officers. Morocco has denied using Pegasus.

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Taiwan eyes local AI as digital defence; Chinese official builds flood-evacuation app for under $5

Taiwan is developing locally built artificial intelligence as a 'digital bulwark' against Chinese influence, seeking to reduce dependence on outside platforms for critical digital infrastructure. In a contrasting example of grassroots AI use, a Beijing civil servant built a smartphone evacuation-tracking app using a domestic AI platform for about 30 yuan (roughly $4.40 in tokens), replacing a system that previously required a dozen officials to call every affected family by phone during floods.

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China's rare earth curbs endanger $6.5 trillion of Western industry, IEA warns

China's restrictions on rare earth exports endanger $6.5 trillion of Western industrial output, the International Energy Agency warned, according to Reuters. The warning comes as Washington faces competing pressures: rare earth supply chains underpin defence systems and electric vehicles, yet cannot be rapidly onshored, while US companies simultaneously lobby to maintain access to Chinese components during technology shortages.

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Britain nationalises British Steel for first time since 1988

The UK government took British Steel into full public ownership on July 16, after legislation passed on July 15, to prevent the closure of the Scunthorpe plant — the country's last facility capable of making steel from raw materials — which Chinese owner Jingye had said was no longer financially viable. Business Minister Peter Kyle said the alternative would leave Britain 'at the mercy of international markets' for steel used in railways and construction; union leaders welcomed the announcement but called for a commitment to buy British steel for public infrastructure projects.

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Germany's Merz warns US against interfering in German elections via MAGA-aligned grants scheme

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly warned the Trump administration against interfering in German politics after the US State Department announced a grant scheme offering up to $3 million for European charities, think tanks and individuals aligned with its stated priorities on sovereignty, migration and censorship. Merz told a press conference he did not want the US government or institutions close to it to interfere in German state elections in September, noting it is illegal in Germany to finance political parties from abroad. Former US State Department officials said the grants are part of an effort to support far-right groups and potentially political parties in Europe.

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